As diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran continue to stall, oil prices are rising again after a brief respite—an increase that will likely translate into higher fuel surcharges across global logistics.

Managing these challenges is becoming increasingly complex for multimodal freight service providers, as fuel surcharges vary widely by transport mode, service routes, and individual carriers.

Keeping customers informed is further complicated by the lag between changes in oil prices and their reflection at the pump. For example, some UK transport fuel surcharges have only recently decreased, even as oil prices begin to climb again.

Brent crude oil prices sit at the core of these surcharges, serving as a key global reference point for understanding fuel cost fluctuations. As illustrated in the chart below, prices have shown sharp peaks and troughs, closely aligning with major developments linked to tensions in the Middle East.

It is important to note that not all fuel types move in perfect correlation with Brent crude. Diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel each have distinct supply chains and pricing dynamics, which can lead to divergence.

Nevertheless, Brent remains a reliable indicator of overall market direction and sentiment. Given the current geopolitical climate—and the lack of progress in US–Iran negotiations—it appears unlikely that oil prices, or the resulting fuel surcharges, will be easing in the very near future.